coast on Wednesday and Thursday before it angles eastward away from the coast around Friday. Keep in mind that hurricanes can and sometimes do make landfall toward either side of forecast cones.Īfter landfall, Idalia should be carried northeastward near or along the Southeast U.S. EDT Monday forecast cone of uncertainty from the National Hurricane Center. Tampa Bay was near the edge of the 11 a.m. Fortunately, data from the Hurricane Hunters overnight has helped narrow down the range of uncertainty, and as of Monday morning, forecast models were in general agreement on a landfall Tuesday night or Wednesday morning in the Florida Big Bend area, between Cedar Key - about 100 miles north of the Tampa Bay area - and the central Florida Panhandle. That means only a slight nudge in trajectory to the right or left can change the landfall location by 50 or 100 miles. Track forecasts along the west coast of Florida are notoriously challenging because tropical cyclones are typically approaching from the southwest, in other words, at an oblique angle. Track forecast for IdaliaĪn upper-level low dipping into the northeast Gulf began tugging Idalia northward overnight, and a larger, stronger upper low will join the action by Tuesday, accelerating Idalia north-northeastward to a forward speed of 15-20 mph into the Florida Gulf Coast.

Otherwise, conditions were favorable for development, with warm ocean temperatures near 30 degrees Celsius (86☏) and a reasonably moist atmosphere (a midlevel relative humidity near 65%). Repeated attempts by Idalia to close off an eyewall by wrapping heavy thunderstorms all the way around its center have been stymied by this wind shear on Sunday evening and Monday morning. Idalia’s heavy thunderstorms were mostly limited to the southern side of its circulation, thanks to moderate northerly wind shear of 10-20 knots, which was pushing dry air into the core of the storm. As anticipated by forecasters, Idalia is waiting to embark on any significant strengthening.

Ozello tidal surge